Who Will Make the Last 8 in Group B in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011?

Is India sure of a last 8 berth in the ICC World Cup 2011? Contrary to belief it is possible for India to miss a Quarter Finals berth in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011! India just lost to SA by 3 wickets in a Group B match.


The Group B table stands like this

Group B
Teams Mat Won Lost Tied N/R Pts Net RR

India 5 3 1 1 0 7 +0.768
West Indies 4 3 1 0 0 6 +2.206
South Africa 4 3 1 0 0 6 +1.352
England 5 2 2 1 0 5 +0.013
Bangladesh 4 2 2 0 0 4 -1.241
Ireland 4 1 3 0 0 2 -0.444
Netherlands 4 0 4 0 0 0 -2.728

This is how India can NOT go to the Quarter Finals.

* Bangladesh Beats Netherlands on 14th March
* SA beats Ireland on 15th March
* England beats WI on 17th March
* SA loses to Bangladesh on 19th March
* India loses to WI on 20th March

The points table will look like this

Group B
Teams Mat Won Lost Tied N/R Pts

India 6 3 2 1 0 7
West Indies 6 4 2 0 0 8
South Africa 6 4 2 0 0 8
England 6 3 2 1 0 7
Bangladesh 6 4 2 0 0 8



All the above results look to be a distinct possibility as of now (except maybe the Bangladesh vs SA tie). In this eventuality - India and England will tie on 7 points each and India will need to have a better NRR to go to the Quarter Finals.

For Bangladesh to make it - they have to beat at least one team (Netherlands or SA) and hope England loses to WI. If Bangla beats just Netherlands and England wins over WI - then the Tigers will be out.

For England to make it - they desperately need to beat WI. In case they fail to beat WI - India will be through and Bangladesh will just need one victory in their remaining matches.

For WI to make the last 8 - they need to pull of just one more victory over either India or England - or hope Bangladesh falters once. They have the advantage of a high NRR so far.

SA has two easy games next. Four out of the five teams still in contention will be going to the last 8. As you can see - it is still anybody's game!

How is the NRR calculated?

The NRR is calculated by the difference between the average runs per over scored against a team and the average runs per over scored by a team. Even though India has a superior NRR as of now, it could change with one big win by England or a big loss by India.

Bottom line - India needs to win against WI on 20th March to make a comfortable entry to the Quarter Finals. Though of course the Group B situation maybe be untangled by then!

(Also see this article at Xomba.com http://www.xomba.com/cricket_world_cup_2011_it_possible_india_not_go_quarter_finals)

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http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html